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Deloitte finds a volume problem behind Swiss watch export values

A new supplier study finds Swiss wristwatch export volumes down 43 per cent since 2016, while value rose 34 per cent. The pressures differ across the production chain.

Hen & Mills Editorial · 4 min read · 4 October 2026

A Swiss watch can command a higher export price while the firms making its parts receive fewer orders. That tension runs through a new Deloitte study of the country's supplier network, published on 30 September 2026. Its long view is stark: Switzerland exported about 14.6 million wristwatches in 2025, 43 per cent fewer than in 2016, yet the value of those wristwatch exports rose 34 per cent over the same period, to about CHF 24.4 billion. The figures describe an industry selling fewer, more valuable watches, but they do not tell every supplier the same story.

The volume behind the value

Deloitte attributes much of the difference to the average export price, which it calculates rose 133 per cent between 2016 and 2025, reaching CHF 1,672 per wristwatch. That is an export average, not a shop price or a claim that any particular model became dearer. A manufacturer supplying a component for a high-value piece may benefit from the shift. A firm built around large production runs of more accessible watches can face a different arithmetic, even when the industry's total export value looks healthy. This is the central distinction in the report: value and volume can move in opposite directions, while costs and capacity remain real on a factory floor.

The supplier survey is relatively small and should be read with that limit in mind. Deloitte questioned 42 executives from component manufacturers and suppliers, alongside more than 6,500 consumers in 13 markets. Among the supplier respondents, 43 per cent called the long decline in watch export volumes a major structural risk to their business. Another 36 per cent said it created pressure they believed could be answered through higher-value positioning and innovation. Together, those groups account for the 79 per cent headline finding, but they describe different levels of concern. It would be misleading to present all 79 per cent as expecting failure.

The near-term concerns are more concrete. Weaker foreign demand was the most commonly selected risk for the next 12 months, chosen by 43 per cent of the supplier respondents. A strong Swiss franc followed at 38 per cent, while 31 per cent selected lower consumer purchasing power due to inflation. These are survey answers about perceived risks, not a forecast of the next export total. Deloitte also records an uneven view of the market: 71 per cent of respondents were negative about the coming year's outlook for entry-level Swiss watches, while 90 per cent were positive about the most expensive watches. Suppliers do not all serve both ends equally.

Why proximity still matters

Pressure on volume has not erased the advantage of having makers and specialist firms close to one another. In the same survey, 67 per cent said the Swiss industrial ecosystem was very important and significantly improved their company's performance and positioning. Deloitte describes a network of component makers, equipment specialists, craftspeople and watch brands concentrated across the country's watchmaking regions. For a brand developing a movement or solving a production problem, that density can shorten the distance between design, tooling and a finished part. The claim is the suppliers' assessment, rather than a measured saving in time or money for every watchmaker.

The Swiss Made label is valuable, though it is not a substitute for everything a buyer weighs. Deloitte says 58 per cent of the consumers it surveyed strongly or somewhat preferred Swiss Made watches. In the markets surveyed, however, price, design and brand image were more important purchase factors. That distinction matters for suppliers investing in local capability: origin may help explain why an object is trusted, but it does not automatically secure an order or make a particular watch attractive at its asking price. The study's consumer sample is broad, yet its preferences should not be treated as a direct measure of sales.

Adaptation is already under way

The firms in Deloitte's sample have responded to softer demand in practical ways. Half reported reducing permanent headcount, compared with 57 per cent in the 2025 survey; 43 per cent reported cutting investment, down from 70 per cent a year earlier. These percentages reflect what respondents said they had done, and the year-to-year comparison is between survey groups rather than a count of every Swiss supplier. The report also describes diversification into adjacent precision fields, consolidation and investment in automation. None is a universal solution: changing a customer base or production process takes capital and technical skill at a time when orders may be less predictable.

Confidence has not disappeared. Sixty-six per cent of the supplier respondents rated their ability to withstand supply-side disruptions as high or very high; 54 per cent said the same of demand-side disruption. Long relationships with watch brands were the most selected support for resilience, named by 71 per cent. The contrast is useful. A firm can feel capable of managing a disruption while still recognising that sustained lower volumes would change its business. Resilience here is a self-assessment of capacity to adapt, not evidence that the volume problem has already been solved.

Deloitte found interest in newer production tools too. Forty per cent of supplier respondents planned to use artificial intelligence for production planning and process optimisation over the following 12 months, and the same share for engineering, research and product development. Those are intentions, not completed installations or proven productivity gains. The more immediate story is the range of responses under consideration, from staffing and customer relationships to the way a part is designed and made. As export values rise and unit numbers fall, the question for Switzerland's supplier network is how many of its specialised capabilities can remain viable across both high-value work and the broader runs that help sustain them.